Jackson St.

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	330.0
Current RPI:	330
Expected SOS:	344
Current SOS:	344
Current Record:	10-20
Expected Record:	10-20
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-12
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC RPI:	305
Expected OOC SOS:	161

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-20	330.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Jackson St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Mercer (174.0)	SC	A	86-58	L	0%
11-18	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	A	72-58	L	0%
11-20	Maryland (74.0)	B10	A	76-45	L	0%
11-24	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	N	63-66	L	0%
11-25	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	N	75-73	W	100%
11-28	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	65-52	L	0%
12-1	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	A	70-63	L	0%
12-9	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	91-62	L	0%
12-13	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	69-51	L	0%
12-20	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	83-57	L	0%
12-22	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	70-54	L	0%
1-1	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	82-73	W	100%
1-3	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	59-56	W	100%
1-6	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	A	55-60	W	100%
1-8	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	61-65	W	100%
1-13	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	85-80	W	100%
1-15	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	79-71	W	100%
1-20	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	45-72	L	0%
1-27	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	A	72-67	L	0%
1-29	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	A	60-58	L	0%
2-3	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	60-57	W	100%
2-5	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	62-67	L	0%
2-10	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	A	86-75	L	0%
2-12	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	A	63-58	L	0%
2-17	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	A	71-64	L	0%
2-24	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	60-59	W	100%
2-26	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	51-48	W	100%
3-1	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	62-60	L	0%
3-3	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	A	66-59	L	0%
3-6	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	62-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Jackson St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Jackson St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Jackson St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Jackson St.	SWAC	26.39	26.39	36.36	36.36	-7.20	-7.20
Southern	SWAC	5.89	5.89	39.29	39.29	-1.26	-1.26
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.42	4.42	39.39	39.39	-0.94	-0.94
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.42	4.42	43.75	43.75	-0.55	-0.55
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.35	4.35	45.16	45.16	-0.42	-0.42
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.31	4.31	24.14	24.14	-2.23	-2.23
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.28	4.28	10.00	10.00	-3.43	-3.43
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.27	4.27	26.92	26.92	-1.97	-1.97
Grambling St.	SWAC	4.26	4.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.23	4.23	6.90	6.90	-3.65	-3.65
Toledo	MAC	1.83	1.83	65.62	65.62	0.57	0.57
Ball St.	MAC	1.77	1.77	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Central Michigan	MAC	1.77	1.77	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.72	1.72	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.72	1.72	77.42	77.42	0.94	0.94
Maryland	B10	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	1.72	1.72	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.72	1.72	13.79	13.79	-1.25	-1.25
Mercer	SC	1.67	1.67	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	1.67	1.67	25.00	25.00	-0.83	-0.83
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.67	1.67	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Ohio	MAC	0.26	0.26	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.22	0.22	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.21	0.21	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.19	0.19	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.18	0.18	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.16	0.16	24.24	24.24	-0.08	-0.08
Samford	SC	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.16	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.14	0.14	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Tulane	Amer	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Georgia St.	SB	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
TCU	B12	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Syracuse	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
UNLV	MWC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
BYU	WCC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.03	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01